News Analysis
Concern is growing at the highest levels of the Reagan Administration that developments in Syria and Israel are producing trends that could set back any chances for a peaceful settlement in Lebanon and even touch off another conflict in the Middle East. The latest such sign was the disclosure Thursday that the Soviet Union was preparing to send Syria an advanced mobile missile, the SS-21, which could hit Israeli population centers. This was regarded yesterday in Washington as only the latest step by Syria to build up its armed forces so they could not only remain dominant in Lebanon but also successfully challenge Israel on the battlefield. Syria's overall goal is to end Israel's occupation of both the Golan Heights, which it lost to the Israelis in the 1967 war, and the West Bank, which Israel captured from Jordan. An Assumption Crumbles More than 7,000 Soviet soldiers have been sent to Syria this year, and the Russians have supplied Syria with $2.5 billion in military equipment, Administration officials said. This equipment, including advanced MIG-23 and MIG-25 fighter planes, up-to-date M-72 tanks and SA-5 antiaircraft missiles never before deployed outside the Soviet Union, goes well beyond what Syria possessed before suffering heavy losses to Israel in Lebanon in 1982. The SS-21 missile, an improved version of the less accurate Frog missile, has also never been assigned outside of Europe.