December 11, 1977

comment on disarray in Arab world in wake of Sadat's call for Cairo conf; on Sadat's diplomatic break with 5 Arab countries following Tripoli conf and expulsion of Soviet and other Communist-bloc officials from Egypt (M)

Key members of Cong and Adm strategists believe there is almost no chance for enactment of Pres Carter's comprehensive welfare reform bill in '78; reasons offered by Cong and Adm observers include; opposition of 3 HR Com chmn to parts of bill under each chmn's purview; formidable opposition in Sen even if passed by HR; basing bill on now unlikely assumptions of natl unemployment rate of 5.5% and enactment of natl health ins plan by time bill goes into effect in Oct '80; disagreement among adm budget officials, Cong budget office and state welfare agencies about ultimate cost of Carter bill (M)

USSR, on UN Human Rights Day, places more than 20 dissidents under house arrest, cutting off some of their telephones and officially threatening to have 'drunken hooligans' break up silent demonstration in Pushkin Sq; press denounces rights violations in US and hails 'democracy and social justice' in USSR; dissidents Aleksandr Ivanchenko and Yuri Grimm say they applied for permission to demonstrate as test of new Const's guarantee of freedom of assembly; those under house arrest include Georgi Vladimov, writer who heads Moscow chap of Amnesty Internatl; Dr Sakharov says others prevented from leaving their apts are Vladimir Slepak and Naum Meinam; wives of Ginzburg and Orlov are also under house arrest: those taken into custody are Aleksandr Podrabinek and Dmitri Leontyev; Tatyana Osipova and Aleksandr Kurpel are held for several hrs and released (M)

Fraser and his Liberal Party win large-scale victory in natl elections; maintain better than 2/3 majority in HR; opposition Labor Party head Gough Whitlam says he is stepping down as party leader; illus of Fraser (M)

Citizens Budget Comm warning that worst is yet to come in city's fiscal crisis seen underlining growing pressures on Mayor-elect Koch to begin cutting services, including layoffs, as soon as he takes office to make up what is becoming staggering budget gap (M)