September 2, 1986

Wall Street investment bankers and analysts doubt that a public sale of the Consolidated Rail Corporation's stock, under current market conditions, would bring anywhere near the $3 billion-plus it was valued at last week in a Congressional Budget Office study. Although they are confident the Federal Government could sell its 85 percent stake in the railroad, they said, they feel the C.B.O. figure is too high because, among other things, Conrail is not diversified as broadly as other railroads and the prospects of its core business are limited. The Government patched Conrail together in 1976 from the remains of the bankrupt Penn Central and other Northeastern rail lines. A Record in the Offing A public Conrail sale, which would be the largest initial public stock offering in the nation's history, sprang into consideration two weeks ago when the Norfolk Southern Corporation, another major railroad, withdrew its offer to buy the Government's Conrail stake for $1.9 billion. Elizabeth Hanford Dole, the Secretary of Transportation, had urged that Conrail be sold to Norfolk Southern after an auction brought in a number of proposals.

Despite the possibility that crude oil prices could continue their sharp rise from the depressed levels of the early summer, oil analysts in the United States say that heating oil prices during the fall and winter months are likely to be at their lowest level in years. The analysts said that prices would remain roughly where they are now - about 20 cents below the comparable 1985 figures - because of ample distillate supplies and the probability that demand for fuel will not grow significantly during the peak heating season. ''I don't foresee any kind of substantial price increase or shortage of supply this year,'' said John H. Lichtblau, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. ''Unless something exceptional happens to crude prices, it's a given that the fall and winter heating oil prices will be substantially below year-ago levels.''

The small private plane that collided Sunday with an Aeromexico jetliner was not authorized to fly in the zone near Los Angeles where the crash occurred, the Federal Aviation Administration said yesterday. In addition, according to an F.A.A. spokesman, the air traffic controller directing the twin-engine DC-9 airliner could not have radioed warnings to avert the disaster because, ''as far as we can determine,'' no radar blip designating the small plane appeared on his scope. The controller did not know of the plane's existence, said the spokesman, Fred Farrar. But at a news conference in California, a member of the National Transportation Safety Board was more cautious. Device Might Have Failed The safety official, John Lauber, said the Piper airplane carried a device to signal its existence to air controllers and that this transponder had been recovered with its switch in the on position. What is not known, he said, is whether the transponder was working.

Alumni who do not make it back to their class reunions may now find the reunions coming to them - on videotape. In an experiment this month, Brown University will mail to several thousand alumni a 15-minute cassette designed to tug at the heartstrings and the purse strings. The sights and sounds are instantly familiar and appealing: to the clanging of the bell atop University Hall the smiling seniors in caps and gowns, the faculty and officers in medieval academic regalia join in a procession that is part of a 200-year tradition, recorded this time with a full orchestral soundtrack. Beaming alumni embrace friends they have not seen in years amid the stately buildings and statuary of the campus, resplendent in the May sunshine.

Secretary of State George P. Shultz has sent a top aide to the Middle East to set the stage for a possible new American effort to encourage closer Israeli-Egyptian relations and to stimulate dormant peace efforts, State Department officials said today. The officials said that depending on the recommendation of the aide, Assistant Secretary of State Richard W. Murphy, Mr. Shultz might go to the region himself next week. If Mr. Shultz decides to go, he will probably take part in the meeting between Prime Minister Shimon Peres of Israel and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, which is tentatively scheduled for Sept. 10 and 11 in Cairo, officials said. Waiting for Sinai Accord The holding of the meeting, and any trip by Mr. Shultz to the region, depend on the resolution by Egypt and Israel of final details that would set in motion arbitration over the disputed area of Sinai known as Taba, officials said.