January 28, 1991

The very notion that someone would be motivated to simulate reality in New York City -- as if anybody needed yet another dose of it -- and then expect to profit from the experience might evoke an archetypal New York response: Be real. Whether that experience is genuine or merely computer-generated, though, New York is a place where bureaucracy often imposes its own brand of reality.

In the textbook world, a primary tool to fight recession is an expanding Federal budget deficit. Extra Government stimulus, the theory goes, will make up for diminished spending in the private sector and thereby soften the economic downturn. Even before the outbreak of war, the reality did not match the ideal, and the conflict in the Persian Gulf is not expected to bring the two any closer. By contrast to the industrial mobilization for World War II, which pulled the nation out of the Great Depression, this conflict is backed by a well-stocked military inventory.

Lorraine Routh Nelson wants the world to know that she is not some depersonalized, robotized drone lurking at the other end of a telephone. When she says, "To get your messages, press 2," she cares. Really. This may surprise technology-weary workers in 5,000 corporations who hear her ever-so-slightly breathless voice every day, delivering deathless announcements on their automated answering systems. Sweet nothings these are not.

With many countries struggling against slowdowns or recessions, economists are hanging on every development in the Persian Gulf for signs of how much economic damage the war is likely to cause. But few economies appear poised to benefit as much as Japan's in the event of a brief war, or have the staying power to endure a long war with as little strain, a range of experts say. Japan has been criticized for contributing money but not personnel to help in the allied effort to force Iraq out of Kuwait, even though it is more dependent on Middle East oil than any other industrial country. Now some economists say that in the war's aftermath, Japan may enjoy the greatest economic boost, particularly if the risk of soaring oil prices is reduced. A Difficult Transition This is not to say that Japan's economic forecast is entirely rosy. Even before the crisis began, Japan was in the midst of a difficult economic transition. Growth is slowing from its blistering pace of the last several years, a problem in a country that considers expansion of less than 3 percent a recession. The stock market plunged 40 percent last year as interest rates soared, corporate profits are falling, and many are predicting property prices will decline after big increases in the 1980's. The recession in the United States is also threatening to cut into Japanese exports.

Bart Oates stood at a podium, wearing a white T-shirt that somehow already read, "Giants 20, Bills 19." His right arm cradled a long silver trophy with a metallic football at the top. In the bright lights, one could see fingerprints all over the Vince Lombardi Trophy, and most of them had to belong to the center of the New York Giants.