September 29, 1998

Problem of error in making scientific predictions is topic of workshop this month at Estes Park, Colo; experts say that whether problem is climate change, earthquakes, droughts or floods, tendency to overlook uncertainties, margins of error and ranges of probability can lead to damaging misjudgments; say that problem arises because decision makers sometimes want to avoid making hard choices in uncertain situations--they would rather place responsibility on predictors; photo (M)

Restoration plan is laid out for Ten Chimneys, legendary and utterly peculiar summer retreat of Alfred Lunt and Lynn Fontanne in Genesee Depot, Wis; there the Lunts entertain such theater luminaries as Helen Hayes, Alexander Woollcott, Lillian Gish, Sherwood Anderson, S N Berman, Montgomery Clift, Uta Hagen and Julie Harris; photos (L)

News analysis says victory by Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder in German national elections to become Chancellor-elect ushers in new phase in German political life; victory represents eastward shift away from conservative Rhineland culture of Chancellor Helmut Kohl and first postwar Chancellor, Konrad Adenauer, toward as yet untried forms of government (M)

New York, joining growing number of states that give tax breaks for college savings, inaugurates program that allows parents to save thousands of dollars in state taxes as they put aside money for child's college education; taxpayers who live or work in New York will be able to deduct total of $5,000 a year from their taxable state income for contributions to one or more Family Tuition Accounts; money invested, and interest earned, will be protected from both state and Federal taxes; photo (M)

Incumbent Representative Nancy L Johnson, Republican, finds herself defending her party's drawn-out handling of President Clinton's fate as she campaigns for re-election in Connecticut district that has more registered Democrats than Republicans and who voted for Clinton in both 1992 and 1996; she discusses her difficulty in defending way Speaker Newt Gingrich and other Republican leaders are handling scandal (M)