September 29, 1998

Problem of error in making scientific predictions is topic of workshop this month at Estes Park, Colo; experts say that whether problem is climate change, earthquakes, droughts or floods, tendency to overlook uncertainties, margins of error and ranges of probability can lead to damaging misjudgments; say that problem arises because decision makers sometimes want to avoid making hard choices in uncertain situations--they would rather place responsibility on predictors; photo (M)

Restoration plan is laid out for Ten Chimneys, legendary and utterly peculiar summer retreat of Alfred Lunt and Lynn Fontanne in Genesee Depot, Wis; there the Lunts entertain such theater luminaries as Helen Hayes, Alexander Woollcott, Lillian Gish, Sherwood Anderson, S N Berman, Montgomery Clift, Uta Hagen and Julie Harris; photos (L)

News analysis says victory by Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder in German national elections to become Chancellor-elect ushers in new phase in German political life; victory represents eastward shift away from conservative Rhineland culture of Chancellor Helmut Kohl and first postwar Chancellor, Konrad Adenauer, toward as yet untried forms of government (M)

New York, joining growing number of states that give tax breaks for college savings, inaugurates program that allows parents to save thousands of dollars in state taxes as they put aside money for child's college education; taxpayers who live or work in New York will be able to deduct total of $5,000 a year from their taxable state income for contributions to one or more Family Tuition Accounts; money invested, and interest earned, will be protected from both state and Federal taxes; photo (M)

Incumbent Representative Nancy L Johnson, Republican, finds herself defending her party's drawn-out handling of President Clinton's fate as she campaigns for re-election in Connecticut district that has more registered Democrats than Republicans and who voted for Clinton in both 1992 and 1996; she discusses her difficulty in defending way Speaker Newt Gingrich and other Republican leaders are handling scandal (M)

Seiji Ozawa, defying doctor's advice and effects of 103-degree fever and flu he brought back after concerts in Russia, conducts Boston Symphony Orchestra before thousands of fans on Boston Common; says it 'broke his heart' to miss celebratory opening performance of his 25th season on Sept 23; Kurt Masur will conduct New York Philharmonic in performance of Beethoven's Ninth Symphony, with Swedish baritone Hakan Hagegard; photo of Hagegard; Brooklyn Academy of Music revises performance schedule for equestrian troupe Zingaro's Eclipse at Big Top in Battery Park City; comment on art show at Smithsonian Institution's Arthur M Sackler Gallery in Washington: The Jesuits and the Grand Mogul: Renaissance Art at the Imperial Court of India (1580-1630); photo (M)

Gen Barry R McCaffrey, White House drug czar, will announce policy to expand availability of methadone to all those who need it, despite criticisms by New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani that use represents exchanging one addiction for another; will announce major overhaul of Federal plans to treat heroin addiction, incorporating ideas from Government agencies and other specialists in substance abuse; will recommend that doctors be allowed to administer methadone to patients in privacy of their offices; new policy would make methadone treatment available to any addict who requests and needs it; methadone is used by 115,000 Americans addicted to heroin and other opiates; photo (M)

Gillette Co, world's largest maker of blades and razors, says it will cut 4,700 jobs, or 11 percent of it worldwide work force, as it reorganizes its business; says earnings for quarter will be down 20 percent from quarter a year ago, largely as result of $535 million charge against earnings to pay for cutbacks and reorganization; company plans to close 14 plants and 12 warehouses and eliminate or consolidate about 30 office facilities worldwide (M)

Search for extraterrestrial intelligence, or SETI, is at a turning point after nearly four decades of hard work; with arrival of Dr Jill C Tarter and her crew from SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif, at Arecibo observatory in Puerto Rico, field has reached a high point in terms of telescope sensitivity, a top goal of alien hunters; effort has found no extraterrestrials so far, despite forecasts that they should have been discovered by now; over next few years, astronomers at SETI Institute plan to use massive Arecibo radiotelescope to listen for signals from alien civilizations; photo; drawings (L)

Article on New York Yankees preparing for playoff series against Texas Rangers; photo (M)

Prime Min Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat reportedly agree on essentials of Israeli withdrawal from additional 13 percent of West Bank, which would leave Palestinians with political control over 40 percent of West Bank, including 98 percent of Palestinian population; flurry of negotiations in New York and meeting of both leaders with Pres Clinton at White House on September 28 failed to clinch final pact because of unresolved issues, such as parallel Palestinian actions to insure Israeli security and to fight terrorism; Netanyahu and US Sec of State Madeleine K Albright express optimism over completing deal in three-way talks in Washington in mid-October; Clinton says substantial progress was made during White House meeting, but warns much more needs to be done before comprehensive agreement can be reached; says both leaders have accepted invitation to meet, perhaps at Camp David; compromise accepted by Israel involves converting nearly quarter of 13 percent withdrawal--or three percent of West Bank--into nature preserve where Palestinians would not be allowed to live; land is uninhabited desert scrubland; photo (M)

Clyde Haberman NYC column discusses storied history of New York Yankees as they prepare for playoffs; tribute to Joe DiMaggio on last day of regular season noted (M)