January 5, 2003

State of commercial real estate market in New York City examined; demand for office space is soft and rents are declining; investors are spending heavily for trophy buildings, but ignoring others; outlook for 2003 is unclear, with some real estate executives saying upturn in economy could have big impact and others saying upturn is nowhere in sight; large amount of sublet space pits tenants whose needs have diminished against landlords; office space vacancy rate in suburban markets of New Jersey, Fairfield, Conn, and Westchester, is rising and industrial sector has also slowed; hotels are drawing customers but cutting room rates to keep occupancy high; outlook is for occupancy to improve and hotels are trying to re-establish corporate relationships; photos; map (M)

Many local health departments across nation say they will have to curtail array of medical services to meet needs of Pres Bush's federal smallpox vaccination program; say much of $940 million that Congress allocated to Dept of Health and Human Services last May for bioterrorism preparedness has been spent for steps to respond to anthrax threats of 2001 and that without extra money, they will have to divert time and staff members from traditonal programs to smallpox; aides say Congress might eventually provide money to help local officials cover some of new costs, but it appears unlikely that lawmakers will take any swift action; Bush administration has requested that health departments administer smallpox vaccine to health care workers on voluntary basis; local health departments are responsible for giving smallpox vaccinations in two stages: first to about 500,000 civilian health care and emergency workers, then to up to 10 million health care workers, police officers, firefighters and emergency medical technicians; photo (M)

Dozen historians, sociologists, political scientists and urban planners offer brief visions of what New York City may be like in next few decades; drawings (L)

Highlights of Los Angeles auto show and International Auto Show in Detroit noted; photos (M)

Anemona Hartocollis Coping column on Robert Lowe who, with his wife and children, returned eight years ago to family mansion on West 130th Street in Harlem; drawing (M)