April 13, 2003

Gretchen Morgenson Market Watch column on future direction of stock market; says investors in stock-index futures have often been correct in predicting market's direction; says in early January 2001, while pundits were pushing stocks, 54 percent of stock-index futures players wagered that stock index would remain in range of plus or minus 10 percent; and 12 percent had made bets that index would fall as much as 25 percent within three months; Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 9.6 percent by end of March; graph (M)

Article on plan by J Pierre Gagne, famed golfer Jack Nicklaus and two others partners to build $50 million championship-quality public golf course in Ferry Point Park in southeast Bronx; park sits on landfill-covered marsh; photos; map (L)

Business executives and economists say that while progress of troops in Iraq is unquestionably good news for economy, it remains to be seen whether military success will prove to have been turning point; still unclear is whether consumer confidence and business investment will not only revive from their war-jitter depths but also begin more sustained recovery; General Motors Corp chief executive Rick Wagoner says Bush administration's recovery plan increases chance economy can get back on more rapid growth pace; photo (M)

Michael R Gordon analysis of coming US attack on Tikrit, Iraq, Saddam Hussein's hometown and last symbol of his rule; says beyond symbolic significance, capture of Tikrit and achieving other goals of offensive will effectively expand zone of American control to north and west of Baghdad and eliminate pocket of resistance to east (M)

Demand for oil continues to rise, bumped ever higher by growing prosperity of emerging markets like China and India and huge demand of US, world's largest consumer of oil; energy experts say upshot is global oil industry and world oil markets that are more volatile and upredictable than they have been in decade; oil companies are shying away from holding large stocks of oil and drilling every time oil prices rise, for fear of financial hit that comes when oil prices plummet; consumers have begun to feel every swing of oil prices and will continue to do so for foreseeable future without extra cushion of oil at refineries or in storage; some issues that have contributed to recent volatility include national strike in Venezuela that virtually shut down oil exports for two months; plans to drill in Arctic refuge have proved contentious, ethnic violence in Nigeria has hindered flow of oil and sabotage of oil wells in Iraq that has been obstacle to production; graphs; charts; photos (M)